MD 1810 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF LOWER MI
Mesoscale Discussion 1810
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 AM CDT Wed Sep 21 2022
Areas affected...portions of Lower MI
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 211254Z - 211430Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated strong storms may produce marginally severe hail
across parts of Lower Michigan this morning.
DISCUSSION...Strong thunderstorms have developed across parts of
Lower MI this morning along a southeastward-advancing cold front.
While strong surface-based CINH remains given the minimum in the
diurnal cycle, MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg is in place, aided by
steep midlevel lapse rates. Vertical shear remains modest along and
ahead of the front, with around 20-25 kt effective shear magnitudes
noted in latest mesoanalysis and regional VWP data. These storms may
occasionally produce marginally severe hail the next few hours. A
watch is not currently anticipated, but convective trends will be
monitored.
..Leitman/Guyer.. 09/21/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...
LAT...LON 44548436 44368290 43418235 42418265 41718347 41698523
42118597 43028591 43758566 44548436
