MD 1820 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR EAST-CENTRAL OK..WEST-CENTRAL/CENTRAL AR
Mesoscale Discussion 1820
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2022
Areas affected...Far East-Central OK..West-Central/Central AR
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 241955Z - 242230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon and evening across far east-central OK and
west-central/central AR. Primary severe potential is damaging gusts.
DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows cumulus increasing in
number and depth across southeast OK and west-central/central AR.
This is occurring near a zone of low-level convergence extending
from central OK eastward into central AR, along the southern edge of
a band of more extensive cloud cover. Surface observations near this
boundary show temperatures in the mid 90s and dewpoints ranging from
the upper 50s across eastern OK to the mid 60s across AR. Given this
distribution of low-level moisture, greater buoyancy exists across
central AR.
Expectation is for the cumulus to continue to build across the
region, with eventual convective initiation later this afternoon.
This area is displaced south of the stronger flow aloft, likely
leading to a predominantly multicellular storm mode. Even so, a few
organized/persistent updrafts could still develop. Steep low-level
lapse rates support the potential for damaging gusts within any more
robust updrafts. Overall severe coverage is currently expected to be
isolated, precluding the need for watch.
..Mosier/Thompson.. 09/24/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...
LAT...LON 34699494 35329535 35409382 35369266 35259194 34799183
34329224 34269337 34379454 34699494
