MD 1821 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN MISSOURI TO WESTERN TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 1821 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0435 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2022 Areas affected...Southern Missouri to western Tennessee Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 242135Z - 242330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated risk for wind/hail exists with convection across southern Missouri into western Tennessee this evening. DISCUSSION...Convection is gradually deepening along a surface boundary that has sagged into southern MO. This activity is evolving along the northern fringe of thicker cloud cover where differential heating appears to be maximized in/near the surface boundary. Latest diagnostic data suggests a corridor of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE extends across the MO Ozarks into extreme western TN. It appears thunderstorms could continue to increase in coverage/intensity and spread southeast within modestly sheared environment that seemingly favors organized updrafts. Primary risk with this activity should be isolated hail/wind. Current thinking is the severe threat will remain too sparse/marginal to warrant a severe thunderstorm watch, but trends will continue to be monitored. ..Darrow/Hart.. 09/24/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF... LAT...LON 37329224 36418913 35608930 35789077 36809279 37329224
