MD 1825 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL PA AND FAR NORTHERN WV
Mesoscale Discussion 1825
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022
Areas affected...Parts of western/central PA and far northern WV
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 251851Z - 252015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Strong to locally damaging gusts and/or marginally severe
hail are possible as storms spread eastward across western PA this
afternoon. A watch is not currently expected.
DISCUSSION...In the wake of earlier convection, visible satellite
imagery shows a corridor of cloud clearing over southwest PA,
allowing for some boundary-layer recovery ahead of additional
convective development north of the Pittsburgh area. Modified RAP
forecast soundings suggest weakly unstable surface-based instability
has developed over the area, which may support the maintenance of
storms over parts of western into central PA this afternoon. Despite
weak/veered southwesterly surface winds, regional VWP depicts
relatively strong/deep, unidirectional west-southwesterly flow --
resulting in long/mostly straight hodographs. The combination of
weak instability and the long/straight hodographs (35-40-kt
effective shear) should support a few loosely organized clusters
capable of locally damaging winds and/or marginal hail. Overall, the
severe risk is expected to remain too isolated and marginal for a
watch, though trends are being monitored.
..Weinman/Thompson.. 09/25/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...
LAT...LON 40838023 41177972 41387904 41457853 41337798 41017761
40647784 39307969 39338041 39508076 39788089 40248071
40838023
