MD 1826 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 1826
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022
Areas affected...Parts of Wisconsin
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 251920Z - 252145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe gusts and marginal hail could
accompany the more organized/persistent storms across Wisconsin this
afternoon.
DISCUSSION...A straight mid/upper-level speed max -- evident in
water vapor imagery -- is translating southeastward across parts of
southern MN. Increasing large-scale ascent within the left exit
region of the speed max will gradually overspread WI though the
afternoon, yielding steepening midlevel lapse rates and marginal
surface-based instability despite somewhat cool boundary-layer
conditions. While shallow buoyancy profiles will likely favor
shallow convective updrafts, strong/deep northwesterly flow (sampled
by the 18Z GRB sounding) could support a few organized cells and/or
clusters capable of strong to locally severe gusts and marginal
hail.
..Weinman/Thompson.. 09/25/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...
LAT...LON 43769002 44609112 45239157 45709150 46029120 46189075
46098999 45658914 45168842 44538777 43958769 43478789
43308836 43368923 43769002
