MD 1827 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST VA…VA TIDEWATER
Mesoscale Discussion 1827
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0239 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022
Areas affected...South-Central/Southeast VA...VA Tidewater
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 251939Z - 252145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated damaging gusts and/or hail is possible for the
next hour or so. Gradually decreasing storm intensity anticipated
thereafter.
DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows a few stronger storms
moving across south-central VA, along the leading edge of the
greater forcing for ascent moving across the region. Isolated
damaging wind gusts and/or hail is possible with these storms for
the next hour or so. Downstream air mass across southeast VA/VA
Tidewater has heating into the mid to upper 80s amid strong diurnal
heating and boundary-layer mixing. This mixing has resulted in
dewpoints generally in the mid 50s, which is limiting air mass
destabilization. As a result, the expectation is for the ongoing
storms to gradually diminish as they move eastward into the more
stable air mass downstream.
..Mosier/Thompson.. 09/25/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...
LAT...LON 37237849 37767809 38067751 38067689 37937664 37727646
37437632 37157625 36847630 36597656 36587699 36587903
37237849
