MD 1828 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST TX…SOUTHWEST AR…AND NORTHWEST LA
Mesoscale Discussion 1828
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022
Areas affected...Parts of northeast TX...southwest AR...and
northwest LA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 251948Z - 252215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe gusts and a couple instances of
large hail could occur during the next few hours.
DISCUSSION...Along and south of an ENE/WSW-oriented cold front
draped across the Arklatex, isolated to widely scattered convection
is developing southward across the region. While this activity is
removed from the stronger midlevel flow overspreading the Mid-South,
a hot/well-mixed boundary layer with upper 60s dewpoints has
developed ahead of the southward-moving convection. While the weak
deep-layer flow/shear should generally limit convective
organization, strong to locally severe gusts along with sporadic
large hail could occur with any loosely organized clusters as they
impinge on the steep low-level lapse rates. The severe threat is
expected to remain localized and marginal overall.
..Weinman/Thompson.. 09/25/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...FWD...
LAT...LON 32909649 33079571 33479417 33799350 33839277 33759213
33449195 32899197 32629236 32159437 31939593 32039634
32379658 32689657 32909649
