MD 1830 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NY…VT…AND NH
Mesoscale Discussion 1830
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1216 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2022
Areas affected...Parts of eastern NY...VT...and NH
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 261716Z - 262015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...The risk of strong to locally damaging gusts will increase
this afternoon (around 18-22Z) as storms spread eastward from
eastern NY across New England.
DISCUSSION...Latest water vapor loops reveal the nose of a
southwesterly mid/upper-level jet streak impinging on NY, where
regional VWP data shows 40-50 kt of midlevel flow. As the left exit
region of this jet streak continues overspreading eastern NY and New
England -- in conjunction with strengthening DCVA downstream of the
midlevel trough -- convection will gradually increase in coverage as
it spreads eastward along a weak low-level confluence axis this
afternoon. Within the pre-convective environment, filtered diurnal
heating amid middle 50s boundary-layer dewpoints, coupled with
midlevel adiabatic cooling/steepening midlevel lapse rates, will
contribute to weakly unstable surface-based inflow. Deep/enhanced
south-southwesterly flow will yield a long/straight hodograph (35-45
kt of effective shear), supportive of loosely organized bands or
clusters of storms -- especially in the 18-22Z time frame. The
primary concern with this activity will be strong to locally
damaging gusts with the more organized bands/clusters, and small
hail will also be possible.
..Weinman/Thompson.. 09/26/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...
LAT...LON 42667450 43537493 44177493 44617479 44847454 45077395
45057237 45037156 44707139 43857140 43197169 42897218
42727306 42457386 42667450
