MD 1834 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 544… FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE MIDDLE/UPPER KEYS
Mesoscale Discussion 1834
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0204 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022
Areas affected...Parts of southeast South Florida and the
middle/upper Keys
Concerning...Tornado Watch 544...
Valid 271904Z - 272030Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 544 continues.
SUMMARY...The environment will continue to become more conditionally
favorable for a couple torndadoes across parts of Miami-Dade County,
Broward County, and the middle/upper Keys this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...In the wake of an earlier burst of convection over
South Florida and the middle/upper Keys, modest cloud thinning has
allowed the boundary layer to recover/destabilize (lower 80s surface
temperatures) amid upper 70s dewpoints. The AMX and BYX VWPs show a
gradual increase in low-level flow and related enlargement of
clockwise-turning low-level hodographs (around 200-250 m2/s2 0-1 km
SRH). During the next few hours, low-level shear should continue to
increase, with a corresponding increase in tornado potential given
the surface-based instability over the area. Therefore, if any
cellular convection can develop or move into this environment this
afternoon, a couple tornadoes will be possible. Currently,
confidence in this scenario is low given a lack of cellular
development upstream.
..Weinman.. 09/27/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...
LAT...LON 25308018 24978037 24608098 24678118 25478101 25788094
25918086 26048074 26088048 26088024 25978003 25768005
25308018
