MD 1840 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 546… FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH/CENTRAL FL
Mesoscale Discussion 1840
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0737 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022
Areas affected...Portions of south/central FL
Concerning...Tornado Watch 546...
Valid 281237Z - 281430Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 546 continues.
SUMMARY...The threat for a few tornadoes should gradually increase
this morning across parts of south/central Florida.
DISCUSSION...After a relative lull in activity overnight, it appears
that an outer rain band associated with Hurricane Ian is becoming
more organized along and just offshore the east coast of the
southern and central Florida Peninsula. Multiple CG lightning
flashes have recently been observed with low-topped cells within
this band, indicative of robust updrafts. With filtered diurnal
heating commencing, even a modest increase in surface temperatures
should translate to greater instability developing across
south/central FL since the low-level airmass remains very moist. A
strongly sheared low-level environment is also present across much
of this region, which is mostly in the northeastern quadrant of
Ian's overall circulation. Recent VWPs from area radars show
plentiful low-level shear, which will support updraft rotation with
any low-topped supercell that can be sustained. A corresponding
threat for a few tornadoes should exist with cells in these outer
rain bands through the rest of the morning. A locally greater
tornado threat in the short term should focus across parts of the
east-central FL Peninsula where convection from an outer rain band
will continue to move onshore. Low-level winds backed to a more
east-southeasterly component along the east coast of FL should act
to enhance effective SRH, and aid in updraft rotation.
..Gleason.. 09/28/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...
LAT...LON 26358179 27208203 27958172 28378083 28128052 27608029
26787998 26018009 25698069 25708117 25968162 26358179
