MD 1841 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 546… FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FL
Mesoscale Discussion 1841
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1003 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022
Areas affected...portions of central/southern FL
Concerning...Tornado Watch 546...
Valid 281503Z - 281700Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 546 continues.
SUMMARY...Tornado potential will increase over the next 1-3 hours,
expected across the east-central Florida coast.
DISCUSSION...Major Hurricane Ian is nearing the
west-central/southwest FL coast late this morning. To the east of
the inner core of the hurricane across southeast/east-central FL,
filtered heating is occurring from around Indian River toward Palm
Beach and Broward Counties. Temperatures have warmed 1-2 degrees
over the past couple of hours across these areas while dewpoints are
climbing with northward extent into the mid/upper 70s F. This is
resulting in destabilization from the Space Coast southward.
Interrogation of regional VWP data indicate wind profiles becoming
somewhat less favorable across far southern FL where low-level flow
has become more southerly to southwesterly from Key West toward
Miami. Visible and Water Vapor imagery also indicate a drier, more
continental-type airmass will continue to wrap around the southern
fringes of Ian and spread into far southern FL through the day. With
northward extent across east-central FL, low-level winds will remain
backed and more east/southeasterly along the stronger baroclinic
zone ahead of Ian.
Latest radar trends have shown some increase in intensity in
isolated thunderstorms within the main outer band of Ian just
offshore the east-central FL coast. Additional showers have
developed across Palm Beach to St. Lucie Counties as well. Given the
continued warm advection toward the north within the area of
filtered heating, an increase in thunderstorm intensity is expected
into the afternoon hours, with an accompanying increase in tornado
potential over the next 1-3 hours.
..Leitman.. 09/28/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...
LAT...LON 28788165 28898137 28958074 28878037 28688005 27787964
27107935 26737936 26397950 26077979 25898016 25968074
26338113 26688129 28008177 28468171 28788165
