MD 1842 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 546… FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL FL
Mesoscale Discussion 1842
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1218 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022
Areas affected...Parts of central and east-central FL
Concerning...Tornado Watch 546...
Valid 281718Z - 281915Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 546 continues.
SUMMARY...The risk of a few tornadoes should gradually increase
across parts of central and east-central FL this afternoon, with a
potential focus from Lake Okeechobee northward to near Orlando FL
during the next few hours.
DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations indicate upper 70s/lower
80s surface temperatures from Lake Okeechobee northeastward toward
Melbourne FL, where at least modest cloud thinning has developed.
These warmer surface temperatures, coupled with upper 70s
boundary-layer dewpoints gradually spreading northward should allow
for surface-based convective inflow. The MLB VWP depicts modest
low-level hodograph curvature owing to backed surface winds beneath
strengthening south-southwesterly flow. Farther west, the VWP
hodograph from TBW is much larger (500-600 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH), though
buoyancy is much weaker with westward extent.
From Lake Okeechobee northward to around Orlando FL, a favorable
overlap of the surface-based buoyancy and large looping low-level
hodographs should prove favorable for increasing tornado potential
during the next few hours. This is especially the case as a broken
band of low-topped supercells spread northward across this locally
favorable environment (two TDSs recently observed with this activity
over Okeechobee and St. Lucie Counties).
..Weinman.. 09/28/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...
LAT...LON 27248117 27438141 27798167 28168177 28428161 28478133
28438105 28328083 28178072 27818049 27318034 27118048
27118089 27248117
