MD 1843 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 1843
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022
Areas affected...Parts of central and east-central Florida
Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely
Valid 281954Z - 282130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...A new Tornado Watch will be issued for parts of central
and east-central Florida by 21Z (over the MLB CWA).
DISCUSSION...As Hurricane Ian tracks northeastward across southwest
FL, strengthening midlevel southeasterly flow within its
northeastern semicircle will continue overspreading parts of central
and east-central FL into the overnight hours. Beneath the
deep/strengthening southeasterlies, backed/easterly low-level flow
south of a weak baroclinic zone draped across northern FL will
result in an increasingly large, clockwise-turning low-level
hodograph. With ample boundary-layer moisture over the area
(middle/upper 70s dewpoints over southern part of the MLB CWA),
surface-based convection will be possible despite the loss of
diurnal heating.
Current thinking is that any new bands of convection that develop
and move across central/east-central FL could pose a risk of a
couple tornadoes with any discrete/semi-discrete low-topped
supercells. The threat will likely be maximized over areas that
warmed into the upper 70s/lower 80s amid middle/upper 70s dewpoints
-- generally over parts of the MLB CWA. Therefore, a new Tornado
Watch will be issued by 21Z for this area.
..Weinman/Thompson.. 09/28/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MLB...
LAT...LON 27438086 27958118 28528165 28798167 29138129 29118092
28628053 27888022 27318007 27098013 27058043 27238064
27438086
