MD 1847 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
Mesoscale Discussion 1847
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0847 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2022
Areas affected...Much of eastern North Carolina.
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 301347Z - 301545Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...The tornado threat is increasing late this morning and
into the afternoon across eastern North Carolina.
DISCUSSION...Several mini supercells can be observed from the KMHX
WSR-88D this morning off the North Carolina coast. Some of these
supercells have started to approach the Outer Banks as better
low-level moisture moves westward. The tornado threat will likely be
contained to areas where 70F dewpoints advance inland. For now the
only 70F dewpoint observed along the coast is Beaufort, ND. However,
guidance suggests 70F dewpoints will move around 2 counties inland
this afternoon. The wind profile is already favorable for rotating
storms per the 12Z MHX RAOB. In addition, RAP forecast soundings
show an improving wind profile through the day as instability also
increases. Therefore, a tornado watch may be needed for coastal and
neighboring counties across eastern North Carolina by mid-day.
..Bentley/Bunting.. 09/30/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...
LAT...LON 33867859 34407866 35037819 35827725 36137674 36337622
36267563 35807524 35277534 34967579 34557649 34477703
34017764 33787792 33677806 33867859
