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SPC MD 1849

MD 1849 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN TO EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO

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Mesoscale Discussion 1849
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0102 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2022

Areas affected...Southern to eastern Utah and western Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 301802Z - 302000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing across southern and eastern Utah
will gradually increase in intensity through the afternoon. These
storms may produce strong to severe wind gusts, but will most likely
remain too limited in coverage to require watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Convection across central/southern UT has shown signs
of gradual intensification over the past 1-2 hours with deepening
echo tops and a steady increase in lightning counts. This trend is
likely being driven by a diurnal increase in buoyancy coupled with
broad, but persistent lift ahead of an upper-level perturbation
embedded within the circulation of the upper low over ID. As this
perturbation continues to pivot east into UT, deep-layer shear will
increase to around 30-40 knots and support storm organization.
Modest low-level moisture will limit overall instability, but steep
mid-level lapse rates (sampled by the 12 UTC SLC and GJT soundings)
will support 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE by mid/late afternoon. The low
boundary-layer moisture content will also support steep low-level
lapse rates where skies remain mostly clear. Latest RAP mesoanalysis
estimates suggest 0-3 km lapse rates may already be as high as 8
C/km ahead of the deepening convection, which will support downdraft
acceleration. 

A few instances of marginally severe hail are possible given the
thermodynamic and somewhat elongated wind profiles, but strong to
severe wind gusts will likely be the predominant hazard given the
low-level thermodynamics. The isolated to scattered nature of the
convection, coupled with the modulating effects of modest buoyancy,
should limit the overall severe potential and the need for a watch
this afternoon.

..Moore/Bunting.. 09/30/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GJT...SLC...

LAT...LON   39121095 39771010 40030929 39950858 39600806 38760768
            37700816 37430902 37181051 37141166 37111248 37851264
            38331214 39121095 

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