MD 1853 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEASTERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 1853
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0132 PM CDT Sat Oct 01 2022
Areas affected...Southeastern Utah and southwest Colorado
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 011832Z - 012130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will gradually develop through the afternoon
hours across southern and southeast Utah. A few strong to severe
storms may be capable of severe hail/wind, but coverage is expected
to remain too limited to warrant a watch.
DISCUSSION...A cluster of agitated cumulus has shown signs of steady
deepening along the terrain of south-central UT over the past hour.
GOES cloud top height estimates suggest that some of the deeper
towers are reaching past the LFC of surface-based parcels (per RAP
forecast soundings), which indicates that convective initiation over
the higher terrain is plausible in the next 1-2 hours amid
strengthening orographic ascent. While moisture across
southern/southeast UT is modest (dewpoints in the upper 40s), it is
sufficient for SBCAPE values upwards of 500-1000 J/kg, and should
support thunderstorm propagation eastward towards southwest CO
through the afternoon/evening hours. Strong, unidirectional flow
over the region is yielding nearly-straight hodographs above 1 km
AGL with effective shear values near 30-40 knots. This will favor
some degree of storm organization as convection propagates off the
higher terrain. Despite the supportive environment, storm coverage
will likely remain limited given overall weak/localized forcing for
ascent, negating the need for a watch. However, the isolated
convection that does develop may be capable of severe hail/wind,
especially over locations where temperatures have warmed into the
low 70s and low-level lapse rates have steepened to near 8 C/km.
..Moore/Guyer.. 10/01/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GJT...SLC...
LAT...LON 38900810 38070811 37470857 37170926 37101102 37141207
37581230 38521161 39211035 39660932 39720871 39490837
38900810
