MD 1854 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN UTAH/NORTHERN ARIZONA TO EASTERN COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 1854
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0627 PM CDT Sat Oct 01 2022
Areas affected...southern Utah/northern Arizona to eastern Colorado
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 012327Z - 020130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A few stronger/organized storms will continue for the next
couple of hours, before diurnally weakening. Hail in excess of 1"
in diameter, and wind gusts near severe levels, will be possible.
DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows clusters of scattered
thunderstorms ongoing over portions of the southern Utah and
Colorado vicinity. The storms are ongoing within a thermodynamic
environment featuring steep mid-level lapse rates, which has
combined with daytime heating to yield modest CAPE.
With moderate west-southwesterly flow across the Four Corners
vicinity on the southern fringe of the western Wyoming upper low,
shear is sufficient for locally organized updrafts. This has been
apparent near the Boulder area, where an organized cluster produced
hail to 1 1/2" in diameter, and across Garfield County in southern
Utah, where a couple of sustained/rotating storms continue.
Current convective intensity is expected to be maintained for a
couple more hours, until the effects of diurnal cooling begin to be
realized. Until then, risk for hail around 1", and wind gusts near
severe levels, will remain possible with one or two of the strongest
storms.
..Goss/Grams.. 10/01/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...GJT...FGZ...SLC...VEF...
LAT...LON 36661298 37541260 38261105 38730895 38720747 38810627
39740539 40350491 40470362 40180358 38260482 38060602
37840836 37460887 36690968 37001137 36651228 36661298
