MD 1855 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR NORTHERN AZ INTO SOUTHERN/EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO
Mesoscale Discussion 1855
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0108 PM CDT Sun Oct 02 2022
Areas affected...far northern AZ into southern/eastern UT and
western CO
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 021808Z - 022115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Sporadic strong thunderstorms may produce hail and strong
gusts through the afternoon from far northern AZ into
southern/eastern UT and western CO.
DISCUSSION...Convection is beginning to develop near the higher
terrain of southern/central UT and northern AZ at midday as lower
elevation temperatures warm into the 60s and 70s. Thunderstorms
should slowly increase in coverage and intensity over the next few
hours. Effective shear magnitudes around 25-35 kt and steepening
low/midlevel lapse rates will support at least periodically
organized cells, with some high-based supercell structures possible.
Meager boundary-layer moisture will limit instability, resulting in
transient stronger cells through the afternoon. Sporadic severe hail
and strong outflow gusts will be possible as convection shifts
east/northeast. Given the transient and isolated nature of any more
intense convection, a watch is not expected at this time.
..Leitman/Guyer.. 10/02/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GJT...FGZ...SLC...VEF...
LAT...LON 37931380 39651140 40890925 40960865 40900802 40460765
39650768 38060857 37010992 36641179 36591335 36901359
37421377 37931380
