MD 1857 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH INTO FAR WESTERN COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 1857
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0616 PM CDT Sun Oct 02 2022
Areas affected...portions of southern Utah into far western Colorado
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 022316Z - 030045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat should continue across portions
of the Four Corners into the evening hours. The severe threat should
gradually decline after sunset.
DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic and regional radar imagery shows a loosely
organized QLCS is progressing into far western CO, with more
discrete supercells persisting across southern UT. So far, only
isolated sub-severe/marginally severe hail and wind gust reports
have been received, and since peak heating has passed, the severe
threat should remain isolated. 23Z mesoanalysis depicts 500-1000
J/kg MLCAPE overlapping with around 30 kts of effective bulk shear
across the Four Corners, confined to a relatively narrow corridor.
Furthermore, sunset is approaching, which should support
boundary-layer stabilization and a subsequent waning severe threat.
In the meantime though, a couple more severe hail/wind reports
remain possible over the next few hours.
..Squitieri/Grams.. 10/02/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GJT...FGZ...SLC...VEF...
LAT...LON 37891393 38191116 39220962 39540900 39360853 38730819
37840809 37290827 37050892 36880995 36871106 36941215
37031305 37891393
