MD 1858 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR AREAS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA
Mesoscale Discussion 1858
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 PM CDT Mon Oct 03 2022
Areas affected...areas of northern Arizona
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 031902Z - 032130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A cluster of storms moving southeast across northern
Arizona may produce an isolated risk of severe hail.
DISCUSSION...Daytime heating has allowed destabilization to occur
ahead of a cluster of thunderstorms advancing southeast across
Mohave and Coconino counties in northern Arizona over the last
couple of hours. MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg has been observed
across much of the area along and south of I-40 into southern Mohave
and Yavapai counties. Forecast soundings from the latest NAM/RAP
show further destabilization is possible through the afternoon, as
much of this area is partly cloudy. Forecast soundings also show
cool temperatures aloft in association with an upper level low
across the western US, which is aiding in weak to locally moderate
instability. Latest observations from VWP at KFSX indicate marginal
deep layer shear around 20-25 kts. A few of these cells could become
severe producing hail up to 1" over the next 1-3 hours. This risk
should remain fairly isolated due to the lack of stronger shear, and
marginal storm organization. This will likely preclude the need for
a watch.
..Thornton/Guyer.. 10/03/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FGZ...VEF...
LAT...LON 34601219 34551255 34561293 34611325 34681371 34791399
34941419 35171416 35491415 35491387 35571330 35591302
35421208 35211184 35001184 34741197 34601219
