MD 1859 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF TRANS-PECOS AND PERMIAN BASIN
Mesoscale Discussion 1859
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0333 PM CDT Mon Oct 10 2022
Areas affected...Portions of Trans-Pecos and Permian Basin
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 102033Z - 102230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Storms forming on the Davis Mountains will eventually move
off the terrain. The strongest storms will be capable of marginally
severe hail and damaging winds. Additional storms may cross the Rio
Grande from the southwest. No watch is expected.
DISCUSSION...Convection has slowly developed and deepened within the
Davis Mountains this afternoon. Visible satellite shows some
boundary-layer cumulus developing to the south and east of this
activity. Farther north, remaining influence of the morning MCV is
evident with cooler temperatures. These cooler areas may destabilize
by late afternoon. Moisture return around the southeastern U.S.
surface high is of relatively poor quality based on 12Z observed
soundings. However, it should be sufficient in combination with -12
to -14 C temperatures aloft to support 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE (with
locally higher values possible). Modest flow enhancement aloft
(25-30 kts of effective shear) from the low amplitude trough in the
Southwest will allow for some storms to organize. The strongest of
these storms will be capable of marginally severe hail and isolated
damaging winds. With additional convection also forming on the
Mexican Plateau to the southwest, additional thunderstorms may cross
the Rio Grande with similarly marginal hail/wind hazards. A watch is
not expected this afternoon/evening.
..Wendt/Guyer.. 10/10/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...EPZ...
LAT...LON 30100535 30570572 30920574 31260520 31370419 31640296
31670203 31160190 29790269 28830328 28540377 29450494
30100535
