MD 1860 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST KS…SOUTHEAST NE…SOUTHWEST IA
Mesoscale Discussion 1860 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022 Areas affected...Northeast KS...Southeast NE...Southwest IA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 120450Z - 120645Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Gusty winds are possible the next few hours along/ahead of a squall line. DISCUSSION...Convection has gradually matured into an elongated squall line, roughly 270mi in length, along a surging cold front from west of CNK to near CIN. This activity has evolved within an instability axis characterized by 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE. Latest diagnostic data suggests updrafts are likely a bit elevated, and aided by frontal ascent within a modestly sheared environment. As this squall line matured, gusty winds have become more common with a few measured severe wind gusts recorded over the last hour or so. Convection has likely peaked in intensity but gusty winds will likely continue for the next few hours as the front surges southeast. ..Darrow/Hart.. 10/12/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID... LAT...LON 39519814 40389640 41909468 40729455 39359665 39519814
