MD 1862 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR EAST-CENTRAL OK…NORTHWEST AR…SOUTH-CENTRAL MO
Mesoscale Discussion 1862
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0853 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022
Areas affected...Far East-Central OK...Northwest AR...South-Central
MO
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 121353Z - 121600Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A few strong storms capable of isolated hail are possible
from far east-central OK across northwest AR into south-central MO
over the next few hours.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed amid the modest
convergence along the leading edge of a cold front pushing
southeastward across the Ozark Plateau towards the Mid-South/Lower
MS Valley. Recent mesoanalysis indicates some moderately steep
mid-level lapse rates persist across the region. Currently, the
corridor of buoyancy associated with these lapse rates is relatively
confined, extending from east-central OK northeastward through
south-central MO. The narrowness of this corridor is evidenced by
the 12Z LZK sounding, which did not sample steep mid-level lapse
rates and only shows minimum elevated buoyancy.
Expectation is for thunderstorms to continue developing along the
front as it moves southeastward at around 25 kt, with individual
thunderstorm motion quicker and more easterly. Storms will likely
remain elevated behind the front for the next few hours, with only
limited severe potential owing to the modest buoyancy and southward
displacement from the stronger mid-level flow. A trend towards
stronger, surface-based activity may be realized later this
afternoon.
..Mosier/Guyer.. 10/12/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...
LAT...LON 35449503 36089438 37079244 36559140 34879337 34919468
35449503
