MD 1863 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1863
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0114 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022
Areas affected...Portions of central/southern Alabama
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 121814Z - 122015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...An isolated threat for wind damage this afternoon. A brief
tornado would be possible with stronger storms favorably interacting
with the differential heating boundary.
DISCUSSION...A persistent are of warm advection thunderstorm
activity continues this afternoon in central/southern Alabama. As
the cold front continues to approach the Mid South, this warm
advection is expected to continue. A stronger storm or two will be
possible, particularly along the southwest flank of this activity.
Effective shear of 40-50 kts should allow for some storm
organization despite modest mid-level lapse rates and MLCAPE around
500-1000 J/kg. The primary threat with this activity will be
isolated damaging winds. Surface winds right along the differential
heating boundary are backed. The threat for a brief tornado would be
conditional on a mature storm interacting favorably with the
boundary. However, this potential appears low as storm motions have
will generally be north-northeast into the cooler air.
..Wendt/Guyer.. 10/12/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...
LAT...LON 32108796 32308777 32608711 32728661 32688542 32518492
32108482 31788529 31838702 31798771 31928794 32108796
