MD 1869 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 549… FOR SOUTHERN AR
Mesoscale Discussion 1869
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0821 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022
Areas affected...southern AR
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 549...
Valid 130121Z - 130215Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 549
continues.
SUMMARY...A swath of strong to severe thunderstorms will be capable
of a threat for isolated damaging gusts and/or marginally severe
hail.
DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a cluster of intensifying
thunderstorms over south-central AR moving east-southeast at 25 kt.
This activity resides on the southern periphery of stronger
upper-level westerlies associated with a digging trough over the
Upper Midwest. Although the surface will continue to gradually
cool, a relatively moist boundary layer (14.4 g/kg lowest 100 mb
mean mixing ratio) sampled by the Shreveport, LA raob this evening,
will support moderate buoyancy through the mid-late evening. As a
result, the risk for damaging gusts and perhaps marginally severe
hail may occur as this thunderstorm cluster moves east-southeast
over the next 1-2 hours.
..Smith.. 10/13/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...
LAT...LON 33939335 33969262 34369209 33819144 33469162 33299233
33529293 33939335
