MD 1870 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL PA/NY
Mesoscale Discussion 1870
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1157 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022
Areas affected...Central PA/NY
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 131657Z - 131900Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated wind damage will be possible with low-topped
convection this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Low-topped convection has gradually consolidated over
the past few hours along an eastward-moving cold front across parts
of central PA/NY, with peak wind gusts generally in the 30-45 mph
range thus far. Buoyancy will remain quite limited, but SBCAPE may
increase into the 200-400 J/kg range where temperatures can rise
into the mid/upper 60s F, and convection is likely to be sustained
along the front through the remainder of the afternoon.
The strongest low-level flow will likely remain displaced somewhat
east of the front, in association with a 50+ kt low-level jet.
However, low-level flow/shear will still be sufficient for isolated
wind-damage potential in association with any small bowing segments
or mesovortices along the frontal band, especially if pockets of
slightly stronger heating/destabilization can materialize in advance
of the front. At this time, the threat is expected to remain too
marginal/isolated for watch issuance.
..Dean/Hart.. 10/13/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...
LAT...LON 40237806 41407760 43187675 44327615 44977502 44957386
43657447 42237541 40437656 39817688 39827737 39757828
40237806
