MD 1871 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL TEXAS ALONG THE GULF COAST
Mesoscale Discussion 1871
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022
Areas affected...Central Texas along the Gulf Coast
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 132056Z - 132200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Forcing from a cold front across southern Texas in
combination with a inland advancing sea-breeze front may increase
the potential for more organized severe storms to develop in the
next 1-2 hours. Isolated severe hail will be possible.
DISCUSSION...Daytime heating has allowed air mass destabilization
across much of the Texas coast ahead of a nearly stationary cold
front. Objective surface analysis shows a region of 2000-3000 J/kg
across the area amid temperatures in the upper 80s to 90s F.
Thunderstorms have been developing along remnant outflow moving
south across the area this afternoon producing occasional small
hail. As a more defined sea breeze front moves inland this evening,
more robust convection may form along the convergence of the sea
breeze front and cold front. A few cells may be briefly severe, with
hail up 1" and gusty winds. As low to mid-level flow remains fairly
weak, the threat looks to remain mainly isolated.
..Thornton/Hart.. 10/13/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...
LAT...LON 28889755 29149728 29649654 29799588 29789540 29539493
29309479 29119490 28889528 28659577 28519607 28339642
28029684 27769704 27679715 27629743 27809768 28169790
28599779 28889755
