MD 1872 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN CA/AZ
Mesoscale Discussion 1872
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022
Areas affected...Parts of Southern CA/AZ
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 151846Z - 152115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and
intensity into this afternoon, with isolated hail and severe gusts
possible.
DISCUSSION...A few strong storms have been noted this morning across
parts of southern AZ, in association with an upper low centered just
offshore of northern Baja California. An increase in storm coverage
and intensity is expected this afternoon, in association with modest
diurnal heating/destabilization. Deep-layer shear will be somewhat
stronger across parts of southeast AZ, where moderate deep-layer
southerly flow is observed (via the KEMX VWP) along the eastern
periphery of the upper low. This is somewhat displaced from the
greater instability (MLCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg) across southeast
CA/southwest AZ, where somewhat greater heating and low-level
moisture is observed.
In general, the weak to moderate buoyancy and marginally favorable
deep-layer shear will support the potential for occasionally
organized multicells across the region, and perhaps a transient
supercell or two. With minimal capping and favorable large-scale
ascent attendant to the slow-moving upper low, multiple rounds of
convection will be possible through the afternoon, with a threat of
isolated hail and severe gusts with the strongest storms.
..Dean/Hart.. 10/15/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...SGX...
LAT...LON 32621597 33251631 33891610 34121522 34241398 33791165
33170990 32310943 31760941 31470939 31300948 31251107
32221453 32621597
