MD 1873 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN OK INTO CENTRAL AR
Mesoscale Discussion 1873
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022
Areas affected...Eastern OK into central AR
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 151952Z - 152145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is possible by late this
afternoon, and will become more likely by early evening. The
strongest storms will be capable of producing hail and damaging wind
gusts, and watch issuance is possible.
DISCUSSION...Cumulus is increasing this afternoon from eastern OK
into central AR, in an area of strong surface heating south of a
diffuse stationary front, and along the northern periphery of deeper
low-level moisture. The timing and coverage of storm development
late this afternoon is somewhat uncertain, due to weak low-level
convergence and residual capping. However, isolated development
cannot be ruled out late this afternoon, with greater coverage
expected by early evening near and north of the boundary as
low-level warm advection increases with time.
Modest northwesterly midlevel flow is supporting effective shear of
30-40 kt across the region, which will support organized storm
development within the moderately unstable (MLCAPE of 1500-2000
J/kg) environment. Initial development will likely be discrete, and
a couple of supercells will be possible with an attendant large hail
risk. Relatively large temperature/dewpoint spreads and weak
low-level flow/shear across the warm sector will result in a
tendency for storms to become outflow dominant, with isolated
strong/damaging gusts possible.
In order to address these threats, watch issuance is possible once
robust storm initiation appears imminent across the region.
..Dean/Hart.. 10/15/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SHV...TSA...
LAT...LON 35939556 35729293 35449085 34989071 34469103 34029171
34039322 34119471 34239514 34719566 35939556
