MD 1875 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 550… FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO CENTAL ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1875
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0538 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022
Areas affected...Eastern Oklahoma into cental Arkansas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 550...
Valid 152238Z - 160045Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 550
continues.
SUMMARY...The threat for severe hail/wind continues across eastern
Oklahoma and into central Arkansas. The predominant convective
threat may gradually transition from large hail to damaging winds
into the late evening hours as storm interactions increase.
DISCUSSION...Organized supercells continue to mature from the I-40
corridor in eastern Oklahoma through central Arkansas. Although a
high degree of melting hail (denoted by high KDP values well above 4
deg/km within most supercell downdrafts) has likely limited hail
sizes thus far, a few 1.0 to 1.5 inch reports have been noted.
Several intense updraft bursts have been observed with a few cells
in latest IR imagery, and a favorable kinematic environment for
severe hail remains in place over the region (as sampled by recent
ACARS soundings from Tulsa, OK and by the KLZK VWP). Consequently,
large hail will remain a threat for the next few hours as these
cells continue to meander to the southeast.
Heading into the mid to late evening hours, a gradual transition to
a predominant wind threat is probable. Mean storm motions, anvil
level storm-relative winds, and effective bulk shear values remain
parallel to the initiating boundary. Additional convective
development appears likely within along/south of the I-40 corridor
given a persistent flux of low-level theta-e air from the Texarkana
region into the convectively-reinforced boundary at around the 925
mb level. These factors will favor a tendency for storm
interactions/upscale growth through the evening hours, which may
already be underway as cells begin to interact across the
Yell/Perry/Saline county area in west central AR.
..Moore.. 10/15/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...
LAT...LON 35709572 35829526 35559409 35369286 35209167 35059130
34659110 34319171 34359317 34569417 34909499 35149549
35349573 35459584 35709572
