MD 1876 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 550… FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA TO CENTRAL ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1876
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0755 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022
Areas affected...Eastern Oklahoma to central Arkansas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 550...
Valid 160055Z - 160300Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 550
continues.
SUMMARY...The threat for severe wind and hail continues across the
watch area. Despite the onset of nocturnal cooling, favorable
thermodynamic conditions will maintain a severe threat into the late
evening hours.
DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar trends across OK/AR show several
supercells and convective clusters roughly along the I-40 corridor
with several severe wind/hail reports noted over the past hour.
While a gradual weakening trend has been noted in IR and echo top
data over the past 30 minutes, the thermodynamic environment across
the region remains supportive of robust convection. The 00 UTC
Little Rock, AR sounding sampled lapse rates near 7 C/km extending
from 925 to roughly 500 mb, which is supporting near 2000-3000 J/kg
MUCAPE. While some weakness in the mid-level winds is noted (likely
due to convective influences), the regional wind profile has
maintained sufficient deep-layer shear to continue to support storm
organization. Recent RAP forecasts hint that this environment will
remain in place through the late evening and may support
re-intensification of ongoing thunderstorms. A strengthening
low-level nocturnal jet through 06 UTC may support additional
thunderstorm development along the front and/or along one of the
outflow boundaries emanating from the convective cluster over
west-central AR.
..Moore.. 10/16/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...
LAT...LON 35819520 35909422 35759313 35499172 34989132 34529152
34289197 34379280 34649392 34879476 35139543 35549564
35819520
