MD 1877 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1877
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0920 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022
Areas affected...Northeast Arkansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 160220Z - 160415Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be capable of
producing severe hail well into the late evening hours. This threat
is expected to remain sufficiently isolated to negate the need for a
watch, but trends will be monitored.
DISCUSSION...Latest MRMS echo top data and IR imagery show
additional thunderstorm development across north central AR over the
past 30 minutes. Furthermore, a cluster of storms moving into
northeast AR with a history of producing significant large hail has
remain intense despite moving towards the periphery of the more
unstable air mass across central AR. Recent RAP mesoanalysis shows a
reservoir of nearly 2000 J/kg MUCAPE across this region that will
support thunderstorm maturation over the next few hours. The wind
profile sampled by the 00 UTC Little Rock, AR sounding is likely
representative of northeast AR given the similar synoptic flow
regime, and is supportive of organized convection, including
splitting supercells. With surface temperatures falling into the 60s
well north of the synoptic boundary, this activity will remain
elevated and should support primarily a severe hail threat through
roughly 06 UTC.
..Moore/Bunting.. 10/16/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...
LAT...LON 35709240 36189295 36529271 36549088 36379004 35978956
35448968 35038994 35019060 35339155 35709240
