MD 1879 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 550… FOR CENTRAL ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1879
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1015 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022
Areas affected...Central Arkansas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 550...
Valid 160315Z - 160515Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 550
continues.
SUMMARY...The severe threat continues for portions of central
Arkansas, and may linger through the 05 to 06 UTC time frame. A
local extension of the watch may be needed.
DISCUSSION...Previously semi-organized convection across
west-central AR has consolidated into a more organized line/cluster
as it moves into portions of central AR. Latest IR trends show this
cluster remains rather intense and is developing an organized
updraft/downdraft convergence zone along its leading edge. To its
southeast, a supercell has also remained intense despite moving into
the residual cold pool of prior convection. Recent RAP mesoanalysis
suggest that instability has begun to wane due to convective
overturning, but 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE remains in place across
central AR with 30-40 knots of effective bulk shear. This
environment may maintain the severe threat into the 05 to 06 UTC
time frame and necessitate a 1-2 hour extension of portions of watch
550.
..Moore.. 10/16/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...
LAT...LON 34179291 34379361 34699388 35189363 35279304 35149229
34879142 34599097 34389084 34039086 33859121 34029235
34179291
