MD 1886 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EAST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1886
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0306 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022
Areas affected...east-central Nebraska into north-central Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 232006Z - 232230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated severe cells may develop near a dryline extending
from central Nebraska into Kansas, producing hail and enhanced wind
gusts. Uncertainty is high regarding coverage of storms.
DISCUSSION...A dryline extends south from a deep surface low along
the SD/NE border, with very strong southwesterly winds enhancing
convergence. Heating continues across the region as well, which is
leading to an uncapped air mass near the dryline. Latest visible
imagery also shows growing cumulus fields, with a few deepening
showers.
The air mass ahead of the dryline remains relatively dry, with
dewpoints mixing into the upper 40s and lower 50s F. However, steep
lapse rates exist aloft, which still results in 500+ J/kg MUCAPE
across the warm sector.
The combination of low-level convergence, heating, and sufficient
moisture may yield isolated strong to severe storms over the next
few hours. Downdraft-enhanced wind gusts will be possible, within
the broader-scale strong wind environment. Long hodographs with good
storm relative inflow east of the dryline and cold temperatures
aloft will favor hail as well.
Given a relatively narrow zone of uncapped air, and questions
regarding storm coverage, a watch is not currently anticipated, but
could be needed should storms become more widespread.
..Jewell/Guyer.. 10/23/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...
LAT...LON 41869679 40729706 39389759 38909788 38649828 38679864
39609845 40119844 40899857 41519866 42309875 42829886
43259866 43349827 43319794 43119725 42819702 42289676
41869679
