MD 1888 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN TEXAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1888
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 AM CDT Mon Oct 24 2022
Areas affected...Northern Texas into central Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 241251Z - 241415Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms are possible this morning from
north Texas into central Oklahoma.
DISCUSSION...Backing low-level flow across the warm sector has
increased convergence along the cold front across western Oklahoma
and led to thunderstorm development as a mid-level trough approaches
the region. In addition, dewpoints have increased into the upper 60s
across the warm sector which has led to the development of some
low-level instability. This line of storms along the front has
become better organized as it moves east into the better low-level
moisture. MUCAPE is around 500 J/kg (per FWD/OUN 12Z RAOB) and may
increase a bit through the day as mid-level temperatures cool.
Backed low-level flow and a 50 knot southwesterly low-level jet has
a wind profile favorable for some low-level rotation. In fact, a few
small mesovorticies have been observed from the KFDR WSR-88D within
the last hour. The limited instability should mitigate the overall
threat, however, an isolated wind gust or brief spin-up is possible.
..Bentley/Guyer.. 10/24/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...
LAT...LON 32429820 32309904 32469953 32849944 33509916 34229888
35189848 36029795 36279730 35709631 34579641 33079670
32569764 32429820
