MD 1889 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHWEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1889
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2022
Areas affected...parts of the South Plains and northwest Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 241738Z - 242015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered storms are likely to form this afternoon from
South Plains into far southwest Oklahoma, with a few storms
producing severe gusts or hail.
DISCUSSION...Strong heating continues near an east-west oriented
front from the Lubbock area into northwest TX, with increasing
showers and isolated thunderstorms beginning to form. While moisture
is limited with low 50s F dewpoints, deep-layer lapse rates will
continue to steepen as a strong vorticity maximum aloft moves east
out of NM.
The initial focus for development will be near the Lubbock area,
near the surface wave along the stationary front. Visible imagery
also shows CU forming along the surging cold front as well north of
the Midland area.
Given strengthening deep-layer lift, and a surface focus, scattered
storms appear likely over the next few hours. The surging cold front
will favor linear modes, though very strong deep-layer shear
oriented across this boundary may lead to QLCS structures and/or
cellular activity as well, producing hail.
While a watch is not expected in the short term, trends will be
monitored for expanding strong to severe storm coverage.
..Jewell/Guyer.. 10/24/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...
LAT...LON 34460165 34990001 34969958 34669924 34359920 33859925
33019986 32260058 32180125 32290201 32670220 33120200
33950191 34460165
