MD 1890 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1890
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0204 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2022
Areas affected...south central Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 241904Z - 242130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm
development appears possible near the I-35 corridor between San
Antonio and Waco by 4-6 PM CDT. It is not yet certain that this
will require a severe weather watch, at least in the near term, but
trends are being monitored for this possibility.
DISCUSSION...Attempts at deepening convective development are
ongoing north-northwest of San Antonio into the Temple vicinity.
This appears focused both along a slowing surface cold front and
pre-frontal confluence zone, aided by inflow of seasonably moist and
destabilizing boundary-layer air. Despite generally modest to weak
lapse rates, additional surface heating and a gradual mid-level
cooling are forecast to continue to contribute to the development of
moderately large mixed-layer CAPE (in excess of 1000 J/kg) through
late afternoon.
Though still in advance of stronger forcing associated with a
significant digging upstream short wave trough, the initiation of
at least isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms appears possible
by 21-23Z, beneath increasingly cyclonic and difluent mid/upper
flow. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear (beneath 50-60+ kt
flow around 500 mb), this may include discrete supercell structures,
at least initially, accompanied by the risk for severe hail and
locally strong surface gusts. The risk for tornadoes remains more
unclear, as stronger southerly flow around 850 mb shifts
north-northeastward away from the region, but low-level hodographs
may remain sufficiently large and clockwise-curved to support some
potential for a brief tornado.
..Kerr/Guyer.. 10/24/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...
LAT...LON 30289855 30939804 31759718 31639647 30549652 29489771
29669876 30289855
