MD 1891 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1891
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2022
Areas affected...parts of west-central and northwest Texas into
southwest Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 241949Z - 242215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Storms may intensify over the next few hours, and at least
isolated severe hail or wind will be possible.
DISCUSSION...An arc of thunderstorms currently extends from the TX
Panhandle into northwest TX, with additional activity farther
southwest toward the Midland region along a cold front. Convection
has recently been relatively weak and low-topped due to marginal
instability/moisture. However, cooling aloft persists, with MUCAPE
increasing to over 500 J/kg. Stronger instability exists over far
southern area near San Angelo, with MUCAPE around 1500 J/kg. Here,
winds up to 850 mb remain out of the south, while farther north,
they have veered to westerly due to cold air advection.
Activity over the South Plains may eventually intensify as it
progresses into northwest TX through evening, with mixed storm modes
producing hail and wind. Recent trends indicate at least isolated
severe cells will be possible farther south as the front translates
east. Despite being south of the midlevel temperature gradient,
low-level moisture is of better quality. Large hail appears likely
with any southern cells moving from southwest into central TX
through evening.
..Jewell/Guyer.. 10/24/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...
LAT...LON 34759916 34389894 33869897 33049902 32669923 32079983
32070061 32070145 32370158 32590156 33080124 33690090
34100081 34500079 34630071 34910007 34969958 34759916
