MD 1892 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 553… FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTH TX
Mesoscale Discussion 1892
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0641 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2022
Areas affected...Parts of central/north TX
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 553...
Valid 242341Z - 250115Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 553
continues.
SUMMARY...Some threat for severe hail and wind will continue through
mid evening.
DISCUSSION...A broken line of thunderstorms has evolved across
western portions of central/north TX this evening, in association
with a compact but rather intense midlevel shortwave trough moving
across the southern High Plains. These storms are located to the
north of an outflow boundary generated by earlier convection, and
are likely somewhat elevated, but MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg and
effective shear of 40+ kt are supporting some storm organization and
occasional midlevel rotation. While storms will likely remain
somewhat organized, relatively weak midlevel lapse rates will tend
to limit the hail threat to some extent. Some threat for locally
severe/damaging gusts will continue as a cold front accelerates into
the region, especially along the southern end of the line where a
shallower low-level inversion will be present in closer proximity to
the outflow boundary.
Farther south, convection is gradually increasing near/south of the
outflow boundary, with lightning recently noted across Mason County.
Very dry midlevel air (as noted in WV imagery and regional forecast
soundings) has limited storm intensification thus far in this area,
but a modest increase in large-scale ascent and the approach of the
surface cold front may eventually lead to more robust storm
development. In addition to a severe wind/hail threat, any mature
storm that is able to track along the outflow boundary may pose a
brief tornado threat as well.
Storms are expected to move out of the northeastern portion of WW
553 by mid evening. Downstream watch issuance well north of the
outflow boundary is unlikely, though some threat for isolated
marginal hail and/or gusty winds may continue into a larger part of
north-central TX. A forthcoming MCD will address the severe threat
in closer proximity to the outflow boundary that may spread into a
larger portion of central TX later this evening.
..Dean/Grams.. 10/24/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 33389879 33279784 32769733 32269730 31759745 30749833
30639928 30669970 31069944 31439927 31779909 32319907
33389879
