MD 1893 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1893
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0648 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2022
Areas affected...portions of central Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 242348Z - 250145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...The severe threat is expected to increase across portions
of central Texas over the next few hours. Damaging gusts are the
main threat, but a couple of tornadoes are also possible, especially
along an outflow boundary. A WW issuance may be needed soon.
DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations and regional radar loops
depict a nearly stationary surface boundary remnant from earlier
convection, which delineates a moderately unstable surface-based
airmass to the south and a weakly buoyant, mainly elevated airmass
farther north. This boundary is oriented west-to-east along a LZZ to
OCH line, with near 80F surface temperatures and 68-70 F dewpoints
located along the boundary. Though low- and mid-level lapse rates
are only around 5.5-6.5 C/km, the rich low-level moisture is
contributing up to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Southeasterly 10-20 kt flow
along the boundary quickly veers to southwesterly with height. Both
regional VADs and RAP forecast soundings depict large, curved
low-level hodographs, and 23Z mesoanalysis shows up to 200 m2/s2
effective SRH already developing in the warm sector. As the LLJ
strengthens this evening, low-level shear should intensify further
across central TX.
Current thinking is that storms in the Menard and Mason County areas
should intensify as they move deeper into the instability axis and
low-level shear strengthens. The storms may start off as transient
supercellular before strong frontogenetic forcing encourages more
linear segments. Either way, damaging gusts are the main threat, but
a couple of tornadoes are possible, both with any semi-discrete
storms or QLCS segments. The greatest overall severe threat and the
best chance for a tornado will be with any storms that can interact
favorably with the boundary.
..Squitieri/Grams.. 10/24/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...
LAT...LON 30969792 31279750 31439691 31529601 31589535 31469487
31149480 30679514 30379562 30229636 30149687 30099753
30169791 30329817 30969792
