MD 1897 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF EAST TX/WESTERN LA
Mesoscale Discussion 1897
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1035 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2022
Areas affected...Parts of east TX/western LA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 250335Z - 250530Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Storms will spread into the region late tonight, with a
threat of locally damaging wind and a brief tornado. Watch issuance
is possible.
DISCUSSION...A QLCS has moved across much of central/north TX this
evening, in conjunction with a strong midlevel shortwave trough and
surging cold front. Generally subsevere gusts (35-45 kt) have been
noted thus far with the portion of the line north of a remnant
outflow boundary, while severe gusts and some damage have been
observed near and south of the boundary across central TX. The
outflow boundary has moved slightly northward across northeast TX
this evening and may continue to do so prior to storm arrival late
tonight.
A gradual weakening trend is possible with time, as the ongoing QLCS
moves into increasingly weak buoyancy. However, some threat for
locally damaging gusts may spread into east TX and western LA
overnight, generally near and south of the outflow boundary where
MLCINH will be weaker. Relatively strong low-level flow/shear (as
noted on the recent KSHV VWP) may also support line-embedded
mesovortices and perhaps a brief tornado or two. Watch issuance is
possible later tonight, depending on short-term observational trends
as convection approaches the eastern edge of WW 554.
..Dean/Grams.. 10/25/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...
LAT...LON 30859446 31639504 32099523 32479523 32769503 32949461
32979387 32889331 32309311 31439305 30849313 30569347
30519391 30589443 30859446
