MD 1903 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1903
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0452 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2022
Areas affected...northwest Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 272152Z - 272345Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Storms are expected to develop this evening with the main
threats being large hail and damaging wind. Watch issuance possible.
DISCUSSION...Southeasterly flow across Texas has allowed dew points
to increase into the low to mid 50s across much of central/south
central Texas. Aloft, strong southwesterly mid-level flow has
advected an elevated mixed layer of steep mid-level lapse rates
across central Texas. This, in combination with increasing moisture
has allowed modest destabilization and a narrow axis of MUCAPE
around 500-1000 J/kg from Sonora, TX northward into the Texas
Panhandle. To the west, the dryline will continue to mix east
becoming a focus for convective initiation across the warm sector in
northwest Texas in the next couple of hours. Initially, any discrete
cells that form along the dryline will pose a risk for large hail,
with deep layer shear around 35-40 knots supporting supercell
development. As the surface low and cold front continues southeast
later this evening, these cells may begin to cluster and grow
upscale with some damaging wind threat.
..Thornton/Guyer.. 10/27/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 33259919 32939916 32449916 31979933 31749973 31720045
31940163 32090187 32300194 32780184 33540180 34220176
34360165 34660110 34740041 34559974 34079929 33259919
