MD 1906 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF WEST TEXAS…INCLUDING THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
Mesoscale Discussion 1906 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2022 Areas affected...Parts of west Texas...including the Edwards Plateau Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 280413Z - 280545Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will develop south across west Texas over the next several hours. Hail and gusty winds are possible with the strongest storms. DISCUSSION...Notable upper low is settling south across central NM late this evening. Large-scale forcing for ascent is spreading southeast ahead of this feature across the southern High Plains and appears partly responsible for a corridor of convection from near MAF into southwest OK. Over the last hour or so, convective intensity has increased with showers in the MAF vicinity, both ahead of the boundary and along the wind shift from Ector into Midland County. Considerable amount of lightning is now noted with these intensifying updrafts as much cooler mid-level temperatures overspread surface dew points in the mid 50s. MUCAPE values are roughly 1000-1500 J/kg extreme southern portions of ww557, south across the Edwards Plateau. Additionally, LLJ is focused across this region and will remain modestly strong from the south ahead of this activity through sunrise. Latest thinking is scattered convection, with some supercell potential, will develop south and spread east toward the Hill County later tonight. Hail/wind are the primary hazards. ..Darrow/Guyer.. 10/28/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 31520233 32590102 32170020 30050049 30340180 31520233
