MD 1908 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST
Mesoscale Discussion 1908
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0943 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2022
Areas affected...the middle Texas coast
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 281443Z - 281645Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...An organization cluster of thunderstorms could intensify
further with increasing potential to produce strong surface gusts
while spreading across middle Texas coastal areas, into the Gulf of
Mexico, by or shortly after 12-1 PM CDT. Due limited area and
duration of any appreciable potential severe risk, a severe weather
watch is not currently anticipated, but trends are being monitored.
DISCUSSION...Near the southern periphery of stronger forcing for
ascent, associated with the mid-level low now beginning to turn east
of the Texas South Plains/Edwards Plateau vicinity, an area of more
vigorous convection has shown signs of better organization. This
appears to include a small lower/mid tropospheric cyclonic vortex
now west of the Victoria area, which is migrating east northeastward
toward the middle Texas coastal plain.
This clustering of stronger storms appears rooted above convective
outflow advancing into the lower Rio Grande Valley, to its south and
southwest, near its intersection with a weak warm frontal zone
extending into coastal areas near the Palacios vicinity. Even to
the cool side of this warm front, surface observations indicate at
least a corridor with dew points in the upper 60s to near 70F. With
increasing insolation during the next couple of hours, inflow of
moderately large mixed-layer CAPE may develop before convection
spreads offshore.
So there appears at least a small window of opportunity for
substantive further intensification and organization of convection
as it propagates across the middle Texas coast through late morning,
in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. Although lower
tropospheric ambient flow is somewhat modest, this could include the
development of strengthening rear inflow and with potential to
produce damaging surface gusts.
..Kerr/Grams.. 10/28/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...
LAT...LON 29199756 29569638 29299515 28349641 28369792 28789763
29199756
