MD 1909 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 1909
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1211 PM CDT Sat Oct 29 2022
Areas affected...Southern Louisiana and Southern Mississippi
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 291711Z - 291815Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are
possible this afternoon, tornado watch likely.
DISCUSSION...Regional radar/satellite shows an increase in
convective development across the region as broad mid-level ascent
overspreads low-level warm/moist advection. Despite rich low-level
moisture (surface dew point temperatures in the upper 60s and low
70s F), instability remains rather marginal (MLCAPE of 500-1000
J/kg). Widespread cloud cover is limiting diabatic heating, thus
limiting further destabilization. Nevertheless, effective deep-layer
shear of 40-45 kt will help to organize the developing convection.
Radar trends support this notion, with at least transient/weak
mid-level rotation now evident in several cells. This trend is
expected to continue into the afternoon, which may yield a threat
for isolated damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes. Thus,
convective trends will be monitored for the issuance of a tornado
watch this afternoon.
..Karstens/Grams.. 10/29/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...
LAT...LON 29089093 30549116 31429085 31648955 30838869 29948845
29048904 29089093
