MD 1910 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 558… FOR SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI…FAR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA…AND FAR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1910
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0328 PM CDT Sat Oct 29 2022
Areas affected...Southern Mississippi...far Southeast
Louisiana...and far Southwest Alabama
Concerning...Tornado Watch 558...
Valid 292028Z - 292200Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 558 continues.
SUMMARY...The threat for a few tornadoes, as well as isolated
damaging wind gusts, continues across WW 558.
DISCUSSION...Regional radar shows a few north-south oriented bands
of convection across WW 558, mainly across parts of southern
Mississippi and Louisiana, moving north-northeast. This activity has
mainly exhibited weak/transient low-level rotation with the
strongest cells thus far. More isolated cellular development
continues to occur over the Gulf of Mexico and move onshore. A few
of these cells have exhibited more persistent low-level rotation,
particularly across far southeast Mississippi.
Despite the widespread convection, the environment remains
supportive of a tornado/damaging wind threat, with MLCAPE near 1000
J/kg, 40-45 kt of effective bulk shear, and 20-25 kt of 0-1 km AGL
shear across the region. This threat may be more locally enhanced
where surface temperatures are relatively warmer, in the mid-70s F,
mainly along and immediately north of the Gulf Coast. With time, the
connective activity will move into portions of southwest Alabama,
and a new watch may be needed this evening to encompass this threat.
..Karstens.. 10/29/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...
LAT...LON 30138752 29678834 29878959 31078978 31449048 31989084
32149021 32028854 31208784 30138752
