MD 1911 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 558…559… FOR SOUTHEAST MS…SOUTHWEST AL…AND THE FAR WESTERN FL PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1911
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0523 PM CDT Sat Oct 29 2022
Areas affected...Southeast MS...southwest AL...and the far western
FL Panhandle
Concerning...Tornado Watch 558...559...
Valid 292223Z - 300000Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 558, 559 continues.
SUMMARY...The tornado threat continues across Tornado Watches 558
and 559, with the greatest near-term threat focused over coastal
areas of southern MS and AL.
DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from MOB depicts scattered convection
including several semi-discrete supercells spreading northward
across parts of southern MS and AL -- along and south of an
effective warm front lifting slowly northeastward across the Gulf
Coast states. Upper 60s to lower 70s surface dewpoints across the
warm sector are supporting surface-based inflow for these storms,
and large, clockwise-turning low-level hodographs (around 300 m2/s2
0-1-km SRH per MOB VWP) are strongly favoring cyclonic supercells.
Several brief tornadoes have already occurred across the area, and
the supercell tornado risk will continue into the evening hours
given the favorable boundary-layer streamwise vorticity and rich
low-level moisture. In the near-term, the tornado risk should remain
focused along coastal areas of MS and AL -- where fully modified
Gulf moisture (lower 70s dewpoints) are in place amid backed surface
winds. As the warm front lifts slowly northeastward this evening in
conjunction with a low-level jet, the threat could shift slightly
northward and eastward, though the best airamss should generally
remain focused immediately inland of the coast.
..Weinman.. 10/29/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...
LAT...LON 30178791 30158852 30278896 30468923 30998928 31318918
31528893 31538843 31398801 31238772 30888742 30658731
30328730 30228750 30178791
