MD 1914 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTH TX AND THE LOWER TX COAST
Mesoscale Discussion 1914
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0930 PM CDT Mon Oct 31 2022
Areas affected...Parts of south TX and the lower TX coast
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 010230Z - 010530Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...The risk of isolated strong to severe storms will
gradually increase across parts of south TX and the lower TX coast
tonight. Primary concerns will be locally damaging gusts and perhaps
a brief tornado with any organized supercell structures. Watch
issuance is not currently expected, though convective trends will be
monitored.
DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from BRO depicts widely scattered
convective development in the vicinity of a marine warm front
lifting slowly northward toward south TX this evening. While
convection north of the boundary has been elevated owing to stable
antecedent boundary-layer conditions, surface-based storms
(including supercell structures) are evident along and south of the
boundary -- where higher low-level theta-e air is in place. As a
subtle low/mid-level vorticity maxima (evident in IR imagery)
continues northward toward south TX, the marine warm front and
related surface-based buoyancy will gradually overspread south TX.
The 00Z observed BRO sounding and VWP data show
enhanced/strengthening easterly flow in the 0-1-km layer, surmounted
by strong southwesterly flow aloft. This is yielding a
large/elongated hodograph, characterized by 45-55 kt of 0-6 km
shear, and modest low-level hodograph curvature (around 150 m2/s2
0-1-km SRH). This wind profile, coupled with the increasing
surface-based buoyancy, will support embedded supercell structures
capable of locally damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado during
the overnight hours. Currently, the severe risk is expected to be
too isolated for a watch, though convective trends will be
monitored.
..Weinman/Edwards.. 11/01/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BRO...
LAT...LON 27099785 27079731 25969706 25799724 25929800 26049835
26139860 26259891 26339915 26469922 26589928 26729913
26889867 27099785
