MD 1916 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN TX PANHANDLE…NORTHWEST OK…SOUTH-CENTRAL KS
Mesoscale Discussion 1916
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 AM CDT Fri Nov 04 2022
Areas affected...eastern TX Panhandle...northwest OK...south-central
KS
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 040753Z - 041030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated large hail (diameter 1.0 to 1.5 inches) will be
the primary risk with the stronger storms that develop post-front.
DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic early this morning shows storms increasing
in coverage from the northeast TX Panhandle into central KS along
and behind a surface front analyzed from Amarillo, TX to Medicine
Lodge, KS. The front will continue to push south over the next few
hours into northwest OK and into an increasingly moist airmass.
Surface dewpoints range from near 60 deg F over the northeast part
of the TX Panhandle to the lower 60s in northwest OK and
south-central KS ahead of the front. The 06 UTC Amarillo raob
showed an 8.3 deg C/km 700-500 mb lapse rate and a 500 mb
temperature at -15.7 deg C. The hodograph is long due to an intense
250 mb speed max over the High Plains.
Given the strong deep-layer shear and lapse rates, thunderstorms are
expected to gradually intensify early this morning through daybreak.
Isolated large hail appears to be the primary severe hazard as long
as storms remain confined to the post-frontal airmass. Will
continue to monitor convective trends for warm-sector development
and a non-elevated storm-hazard risk (i.e., isolated severe gusts,
perhaps a tornado).
..Smith/Edwards.. 11/04/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...
LAT...LON 35250125 35730113 37539891 37659818 37359776 36919772
34950028 34980086 35250125
