MD 1918 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND EASTERN IOWA TO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 1918
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0205 PM CDT Fri Nov 04 2022
Areas affected...Northeast Missouri and eastern Iowa to northern
Illinois and southern Wisconsin
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 041905Z - 042100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Sporadic damaging winds and severe hail will remain
possible through the late afternoon hours. Despite favorable shear,
weak instability will limit the overall severe threat and negate the
need for a watch.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to develop along a southeastward
moving cold front across portions of the upper MS River Valley
region. Individual cells have displayed a history of brief periods
of intensification before weakening over the past 1-2 hours,
resulting in generally sub-severe hail and wind gusts. However, a
couple of 1-1.25 inch hail reports have been noted in association
with these brief convective bursts. The thermodynamic environment
across the upper MS River Valley region remains limited owing to
poor/saturated mid-level lapse rates as sampled by a recent ACARS
sounding from the Milwaukee area, but MUCAPE values near 500 J/kg
will continue to support convection through the afternoon/early
evening. Regional VWPs are sampling elongated hodographs with strong
(60-65 knot) deep-layer shear that will maintain the potential for
storm organization. Consequently, a few stronger/severe storms
capable of damaging winds and/or severe hail will remain possible
through the late afternoon (and possibly early evening) as the front
continues to move southeast.
..Moore/Hart.. 11/04/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...
LAT...LON 40649203 42149058 43098960 43288890 43168794 42698774
41838766 40988889 40009036 39859109 40059151 40129191
40649203
